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جایگزینی برای نفت ایران وجود ندارد

نوشته شده توسط : gogos

اقدام اخیر اتحادیه اروپا را مبنی بر تحریم نفتی ایران از جمله مسایل ای است كه فعالان بازار نفت را به شدت نگران كرده است. بسیاری از كارشناسان معتقدند كه تحریم نفتی ایران اولا به شدت بازار نفت را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد كه این امر به نوبه خود قیمت نفت را افزایش خواهد كرد و ثانیا شرایط اقتصادی اتحادیه اروپا متزلزل تر می كند.

به این بهانه با 'سام باردن'(Sam Barden) از بنیانگذاران شركت'SBI Markets DMCC' فعال در مشاوره به شركت های نفتی و كارشناسان بین المللی حوزه نفت به گفتگو نشسته ایم.

ایرنا: به نظر شما تحریم نفتی ایران از جانب اتحادیه اروپا در شش ماه آینده عملی خواهد شد؟

باردن: به نظر من این مساله محقق نخواهد شد. كشورهای عضو اتحادیه اروپا همچون یونان، ایتالیا ، اسپانیا و پرتغال شدیدا وابسته به نفت ایران هستند. یونان به احتمال زیاد به زودی از اتحادیه اروپا خارج خواهد شد، لذا دیگر زیر سلطه تصمیمات اتحادیه اروپا در واردات نفت از ایران نخواهند بود. تحریم نفتی ایران یك جنگ گسترده اقتصادی علیه ایران است كه به اعتقاد من اتحادیه اروپا بازنده آن خواهد بود. بهترین اقدام اتحادیه اروپا به جای تحریم، تغییر كامل سیاست ها نسبت به ایران و همكاری های اقتصادی و سیاسی با این كشور است.

ایرنا: به نظر شما تحریم نفتی ایران چه تاثیری بر بازارهای جهانی خواهد گذاشت؟

باردن: مسلما بازارهای جهانی به علت افزایش خطر گسترده تر بدهی های كشورهای عضو اتحادیه اروپا دچار بحران خواهد شد. همچنین به علت افزایش قیمت نفت، رشد اقتصادی اروپا و ایالات متحده منفی خواهد شد. این به معنی رشد پایین و آهسته بازارهای آسیایی و نیز كاهش رشد تجارت بین آسیا، چین، اتحادیه اروپا و ایالات متحده است.

ایرنا: در صورت اتخاذ این تصمیم، اتحادیه اروپا به لحاظ اقتصادی با چه چالش هایی مواجه خواهد شد؟

باردن: اصلی ترین چالش اتحادیه اروپا بحران بدهی است كه در صورت اعمال تحریم ها این مساله تشدید می شود. اعضای اتحادیه اروپا باید به فكر كنترل و كاهش بدهی های ملی خود باشند. اتحادیه اروپا باید یك منطقه تجاری باشد نه یك منطقه مالی. روشن است كه اعضای اتحادیه اروپا شرایط اقتصادی متفاوتی دارند و به همین دلیل نیاز به انعطاف پذیری بیشتر در نرخ بهره و ارز دارند. به نظر من با توجه به این شرایط متفاوت كشورهای عضو، تحریم نفتی ایران حوزه یورو را به شدت تحت تاثیر قرار خواهد داد. به نظر من اتحادیه اروپا كه در حال حاضر یك منطقه با قدرت متمركز است؛ به دلیل شرایط حاكم بر قرن 21، شاهد تمركززدایی خواهد بود كه این مساله سبب فروپاشی اتحادیه اروپا خواهد شد.

ایرنا: تحلیلگران معتقدند كه در صورت تحریم نفتی ایران، قیمت نفت به شدت افزایش خواهد یافت، نظر شما چیست؟

باردن: من فكر می كنم كه قیمت نفت، به احتمال زیاد فروخواهد پاشید. در حال حاضر تنها چیزی كه سبب حفظ قیمت بالا برای نفت شده است، تهدید جنگ علیه ایران است. بسیاری از تولیدكنندگان بزرگ مانند ونزوئلا، عربستان، قطر مانع از افت قیمت نفت شده اند. در صورت سقوط قیمت نفت بزرگترین بازنده عربستان سعودی خواهد بود. عربستانی كه نیاز به نفتی در حدود 100 دلار در هر بشكه دارد تا بتواند بودجه خود را متعادل كند. قیمت 50 دلار و یا پایین تر نفت -به ویژه باتوجه به حوادث اخیر در منطقه یعنی بهار عربی- به شدت بر نخبگان حاكم در عربستان فشار وارد خواهد كرد. البته به اعتقاد من در بلندمدت تقاضای نفت كاهش نخواهد یافت. با این حال ما نیاز به یافتن راه های جدیدی برای قیمت گذاری و تجارت هیدروكربن هایی همچون نفت داریم چرا كه سیستم های مالی حاكم بر بازار نفت بسیار متزلزل است.

ایرنا: عربستانی ها ادعا كرده اند كه می توانند نفت ایران را جبران كنند؟ به نظر شما این مسئله ممكن است؟

باردن: نه. به نظر من رژیم عربستان بیشتر از حد تصور عمومی تحت فشار است. هر چند آنها عاشق درآمدهای بالای نفتی هستند، اما به نظر من بسیار بعید است كه عربستان بتواند خلا نفت ایران در بازار را جبران كند. آنها نمی توانند صادرات نفت ایران و منطقه را جبران كنند. جایگزینی برای نفت ایران وجود ندارد، چرا كه منابع نفتی جهان بسیار محدود است.

ایرنا: به نظر شما تحریم نفت ایران تاثیری بر اقتصاد ایران خواهد گذاشت؟

باردن: نه. هر چند ایران نیاز به مبادلات تجاری بیشتر دارد. در حال حاضر ایران فرصت های خوبی برای مبادلات تجاری و اقتصادی با كشورهایی مثل هند، چین، روسیه، یونان و قدری هم پاكستان دارد كه از تحریم ها چشم پوشی خواهند كرد. بدیهی است كه بازار ارز نقطه شروع خیلی خوبی است. ایران نیاز به ایجاد تقاضا برای ریال دارد تا در مبادلات دو طرفه خود با كشورهای ذكر شده از دلار آمریكا استفاده نكند. این مساله در حال حاضر در حال انجام است.

پژوهش**م.م**9123

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تاریخ انتشار : دو شنبه 17 بهمن 1390 | نظرات ()

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